ADDIS ABABA

Ayoub mzee with the Governor of the Bank of Tanzania Prof Benno ndulu

LICHA ya matatizo ya kifedha duniani, sekta ya mabenki nchini ni salama, imara na inaendelea kufanya kazi vizuri, kwani kuna ukwasi wa kutosha katika benki za nchini ambazo zina uwezo wa kutimiza majukumu yote ya kifedha kwa wakati unaotakiwa.Kauli hiyo ilitolewa jana na Gavana wa Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (BoT), Profesa Benno Ndulu, kuhusu msukosuko wa kifedha ulioikumba dunia na athari zake kwa uchumi wa taifa.“BoT inapenda kuuhakikishia umma na soko kwamba hali katika masoko ya ndani ya fedha ni imara kabisa. Nawasihi wahusika wote na umma kwa ujumla wao kuendelea kufanya biashara na benki mbalimbali katika hali ya kawaida. Benki Kuu ina uwezo wa kushughulikia hali yoyote inayoweza kujitokeza,” alisema Ndulu katika taarifa hiyo.“Nataka kuwahakikishieni wananchi wote kwamba mfumo wetu wa benki pamoja na akiba zetu kuwa tuna fedha za kigeni za kutosha kwa ajili ya mahitaji ya kawaida na ya kibiashara. Hakuna haja ya kutaharuki au kuwa na wasiwasi,” alisema.Ndulu alisema hadi sasa mataifa mengi ya Afrika, kwa kiasi kikubwa hayajaathirika moja kwa moja na matatizo haya ikiwamo Tanzania. Sababu kubwa ni kwamba licha ya kukua kwa utandawazi, uchumi wa mataifa mengi ya Afrika haujaunganishwa au kutegemea sana masoko ya fedha ya kimataifa (global financial markets).“Hatua za hivi karibuni za kufungua sekta ya fedha kwa watu binafsi barani Afrika, ikiwamo Tanzania, imevutia benki nyingi za kigeni kuingia katika mataifa haya. Hata hivyo, benki hizo za kigeni zinatakiwa kuendesha shughuli zake kwa kufuata sheria na kanuni zilizopo katika nchi zinakofanya kazi. Uhusiano wa kifedha kati ya benki hizo na benki mama katika mataifa ya nje lazima uidhinishwe kwa mujibu wa taratibu za nchi zinakofanya kazi,” alisema.Kuhusu mikopo kwa ajili ya sekta binafsi, alisema imeendelea kukua kwa kasi hadi kufikia asilimia 48 hadi Septemba mwaka huu, na benki zinaendelea kukopeshana zenyewe kwa zenyewe kwa kiwango cha asilimia tano katika soko la kila siku la benki hizo (daily interbank cash market), wakati katika mataifa yaliyoendelea mikopo kati ya mabenki imekoma kutokana na matatizo katika sekta ya fedha.Kwa upande mwingine, alisema athari kwa benki za Tanzania zinazokopa nje na zenye amana nje ni ndogo sana na hivyo kuziepusha na athari za tatizo hilo duniani.Akizungumzia akiba ya fedha za kigeni katika Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, alisema imeendelea kuwa nzuri kwani hadi sasa kuna dola za Marekani bilioni 2.7, kiasi ambacho kimekuwa hivyo kwa zaidi ya miezi 18 iliyopita.“Kiasi hiki cha fedha za kigeni kinalipa nafasi taifa uwezo wa kununua mahitaji ya bidhaa kutoka nje kwa kipindi cha miezi mitano, ambacho ni cha juu sana ikilinganishwa na nchi nyingi za jirani,” alisema.Pia alisema wananchi wana amana za fedha za kigeni katika benki za hapa nchini zinazofikia dola bilioni 1.6 za Kimarekani, wakati benki za biashara zina kiasi kingine cha dola milioni 600 katika rasilimali halisi za kigeni (net foreign assets),” alisema.Kuhusu thamani ya shilingi, alisema imekuwa ikiimarika kutokana na kuimarishwa kimkakati kwa sera ya fedha wa BoT inayosimamia kiwango cha mwenendo wa ubadilishanaji fedha (exchange rate movement).“Kama thamani ya fedha inayumba sana kinyume na hali halisi ya uchumi, athari zake huwapata wote waagizaji wa bidhaa kutoka nje na wauzaji wa bidhaa nje ya nchi. Kwa kufuatilia mienendo ya ubadilishanaji fedha, Benki Kuu inasaidia kuendeleza uimara wa soko,” alisema.Athari hizo zinaweza kusababisha kushuka kwa mahitaji ya bidhaa nchini kwenye nchi hizo na kuongezeka kwa matumizi ya serikali katika nchi zilizoendelea na kunaweza kusababisha kupungua kwa misaada kwa nchi maskini.Hali hiyo inaweza kusababisha kupungua kwa mikopo ya kigeni au kuongezeka kwa gharama za mikopo kutoka nje na kuzuia uwekezaji wa moja kwa moja (Foreign Direct Investment).Hata hivyo, Ndulu alisema hali ya utulivu wa uchumi hapa nchini inapaswa kudumishwa kwa kila hali kwa kuhakikisha kuwa uchumi hautetereki.“Kwa upande wake, BoT itaendelea kuchukua hatua madhubuti kulinda uimara wa sekta ya fedha nchini. Benki Kuu pia itakuwa macho zaidi katika kuzisimamia benki siku hadi siku na itatumia tahadhari za mapema (early warning systems) kuhakikisha kwamba vigezo vyote vya fedha viko imara.“Hii itakuwa ni pamoja na kuhakikisha kwamba mabenki yote yana kiasi cha kutosha cha fedha kwa ajili ya kutekeleza majukumu yao. Benki Kuu itakuwa tayari kusaidia benki yoyote itakayohitaji fedha za ziada kulingana na taratibu za kibenki (intraday and overnight refinancing windows),” alisema Ndulu.Katika siku za hivi karibuni kuporomoka kwa masoko ya fedha na mitaji duniani kumesababisha hofu, mashaka na wasiwasi katika taasisi za fedha na kuzuia upatikanaji wa mitaji katika masoko ya dunia.Chanzo cha hali hii ni mikopo kwa ajili ya ujenzi na ununuzi wa nyumba ambayo ilitolewa na mabenki nchini Marekani. Madhara ya kushindwa kulipwa kwa mikopo hiyo yamesambaa kwa kasi duniani.Katika siku chache zilizopita kumekuwa na mahitaji yasiyo ya kawaida ya fedha za kigeni kwa sehemu kubwa, yakiwa yanatokana na wale wenye wasiwasi na upatikanaji wa fedha za kigeni kutoka na matatizo yanayoukumba uchumi wa dunia. Wengine wanajaribu kununua na kuficha fedha hizo za kigeni kwa ajili ya matumizi ya baadaye.Hivi karibuni, Rais Jakaya Kikwete alitoa tahadhari kuwa Tanzania inaweza kukabiliwa na madhara kutokana na msukosuko huo wa kiuchumi duniani.Habari kwa Hisani Ya Tanzania Daima



Military samples for the Juba International Trade Fair
Last week, reports appeared in the international and Sudanese press claiming that Ethiopia had sent a plane-load of heavy weaponry and ammunition to Southern Sudan . This followed earlier speculation that the Ukrainian ship, the M.V. Faina, captured by Somali pirates last month, had been carrying tanks and other arms intended for delivery to South Sudan through Kenya . These reports claimed Ethiopia was now providing weapons to Southern Sudan . The reality was very different; it was not even a matter of exaggeration, but of inaccuracy. The Ethiopian plane went to Juba with samples of products from the Ethiopian defense industry to display at the Juba International Trade Fair, opened by Vice-President Salva Kiir. The samples of equipment included one BM21 and three Kalashnikovs, a machine gun or two and a few shells as well as spare parts for vehicles and small arms, some military uniform samples and civilian clothing fabric. The quantity and quality of the equipment made it quite clear it was intended for the trade fair. It was, indeed, inspected by a UN team monitoring the ceasefire in southern Sudan . In fact, all the material that went to Juba was brought back to Ethiopia at the end of the trade fair in which more than 40 firms and companies from Ethiopia took part, as well as the Djibouti Port Authority and a number of Ugandan firms. [Ethiopian Embassy London]

It's been a busy two weeks for the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI). The Eastern Nile Council of Ministers (ENCOM) held its 25th meeting in Cairo on 10th and 11th October. This followed the 24th meeting of the Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program Team (ENSAPT), also in Cairo , 7th to 9th October, with its first day allotted to its Finance Sub Committee. The Nile Technical Advisory Committee is also holding its 27th meeting in Entebbe , Uganda , this week, from 14th to 17th October. These meetings are all held in the context the Nile Basin Initiative, launched in 1999 by the riparian countries of the Nile: Burundi , Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Egypt , Ethiopia , Kenya , Rwanda , Sudan , Tanzania and Uganda . The tenth riparian country, Eritrea , remains an observer. The NBI has a common vision, to achieve sustainable socio-economic development through the equitable utilization of, and benefit from, the Nile River . The governing structure of NBI is its Council of Ministers (Nile-COM), comprising the Ministers of Water Affairs for the Nile Basin States, assisted by a professional Technical Advisory Committee (TAC).

The NBI has two sub-programs. One is the Shared Vision Program (SVP), the other a Subsidiary Action Program (SAP). The SVP is a Nile basin-wide grant funded program involving collaborative action, exchange of experience, and trust and capacity building. The other sub-program, the SAP, aims to realize multi-country ‘win-win’ investment projects aimed at economic growth, poverty reduction and reversal of environmental degradation. Egypt , Ethiopia , and Sudan make up the Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program (ENSAP), while Burundi , DRC, Egypt , Kenya , Rwanda , Sudan , Tanzania , and Uganda participate in the Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program (NELSAP). ENSAP's Technical Regional Office (ENTRO) is headquartered in Addis Ababa ; the NELSAP in Kigali . [Ethiopian Embassy London]

Ethio-French economic links ready to take off
Prime Minister Meles received a French delegation led by Mme. Anne-Marie Idric, French State Minister for Foreign Trade, on October 9th. They exchanged views on bilateral, regional and global economic issues of common interest. Mme. Idric briefed the Prime Minister about two major French investment projects in Ethiopia . The first is a wind-powered electricity generation scheme capable of generating 120MW, the agreement between the Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation and the French company Vergnet Groups, was signed during Mme. Idric's visit. The cost is expected to be over 200 million euros. The first phase will be commissioned within sixteen months and the whole is scheduled to be finished in three years. It is the first project of its kind in Ethiopia and will help to ease the growing demand for power as well as bolster the ability to make power links with neighboring countries. The second project, which Mme. Idric announced to the Prime Minister, was a 300 million euro cement investment. Prime Minister Meles wholeheartedly welcomed the news, declaring that these two projects shattered the ceiling that had appeared to have been reached in the economic relationship between France and Ethiopia . He noted that the cement investment would certainly contribute to addressing the serious shortage that currently confronts Ethiopia 's fast growing economy. He emphasized that this was, in fact, the second largest French investment in Ethiopia in over 100 years, the largest in fact since the establishment of the Ethio-Djibouti Railway Line at the turn of the last century. The Prime Minister expressed his optimism that the two projects would open a new chapter in Ethio-French economic relations, underlining the importance of a follow up. Mme. Idric assured the Prime Minister that President Sarkozy took a personal interest in the implementation of the wind-power project. She told the Prime Minister that the two projects would indeed only constitute a beginning, assuring him that more is yet to come. The current French cooperation agreement for the period 2006-10 is worth USD 52.73 million and covers priority sectors such as water and sanitation, education, capacity building and governance. In terms of trade, France is an important destination of for Ethiopian coffee and for clothing. Ethiopia also receives a growing number of tourists every year from France . A number of private investment projects are at different stages of implementation, including the Karafi Accor Hotels. With this warm and growing economic relationship, it is incumbent for the appropriate bodies on both sides to ensure these two latest projects are fully realized and to explore all possible new opportunities for furthering economic ties. [Ethiopian Embassy London]

Aims of the Nairobi meeting; more AMISOM troops arrive
As current chairperson of IGAD, Prime Minister Meles has begun to send out invitations for the IGAD meeting on Somalia , to be held in Nairobi , October 27-29. It had originally been intended to hold the meeting in Baidoa, the seat of the Somali Transitional Parliament, but Kenya had offered Nairobi . Those invited include the Heads of State and foreign ministers of all current members of IGAD ( Djibouti , Kenya , Somalia , Sudan and Uganda ); Eritrea , of course, suspended its participation from IGAD last year. Others invited to attend include the Chairman of the AU Commission, the Special Representative for Somalia of the UN Secretary-General, Mr. Ould-Abdullah, and the IGAD Partners Forum, of which the Italian Ambassador is the local chair, as well as, of course, the leading members of Somalia's Transitional Federal Institutions, including the President, the Prime Minister, the Speaker of the Parliament and all the members of the Somali Parliament. The decision to hold an IGAD summit on Somalia was taken by IGAD ministers attending the UN General Assembly in New York and endorsed by the AMISOM troop-contributing countries. In an interview with the BBC's Somali Service this week, Ethiopian Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Dr. Tekeda Alemu, explained the main point of the agenda will be to look into the problems currently hindering the creation of an effective government in Somalia . These have been causing serious concern in recent weeks because there are only ten more months before the Transitional Charter comes to an end, and once the transitional period ends there would be no party with any recognition. There is, he said, the necessity to talk to TFG officials and parliamentarians frankly, to pin them down on what they are now prepared to do to implement all the things they have so conspicuously failed to do since 2004. Indeed, the IGAD ministers in New York loudly expressed the deep frustration felt by everybody at the performance of the TFG and the members of the TFIs.

The State Minister noted that there had been a lot of talk as to whether this Nairobi meeting was contradictory or complementary to the Djibouti process bringing the TFG and opposition together. He emphasized that the IGAD ministers had made it absolutely clear that they had no interest in undercutting the Djibouti process held under UN auspices, but rather to complement the activities of Mr. Ould-Abdullah. Mr. Ould-Abdullah’s office announced yesterday [16th Oct] that the UN and the World Bank are organizing an international donor’s conference for Somalia , to take place early in 2009 in Stockholm to raise resources for a one year recovery program. One of the issues raised about the Nairobi meeting was whether or not the opposition would be attending. The State Minister said this had not yet been discussed but he thought it could not be ruled out. He noted that the Djibouti talks between the TFG and the opposition were on-going. So far, they had led to the establishment of joint committees and the process was continuing. A mixed delegation from the High Level Political and Joint Security Committees this week attended a seminar in Cape Town on political and security affairs. Surprisingly, Mr. Ould-Abdallah has now announced that these committees will be holding their third round of talks in Djibouti on October 25 and 26. As all the participants would be expected in Nairobi , it appears UNPOS has made a mistake. It makes no sense for the two meetings to be held back-to-back in different places. No doubt the committee meetings are important but they could certainly take place after Nairobi without difficulty, and keeping Djibouti as a venue would be a sensible course of action. A postponement would also allow for the possibility that Nairobi might include further opportunities for TFG/Opposition talks, though in what form or under what modalities would have to be discussed. The Ethiopian State Minister made clear that the Nairobi meeting would have nothing to do with any extension of the Transitional Charter whatever suppositions might have been made. Any amendments to the Charter could only be made by consensus between the TFG and the opposition.
Meanwhile, last weekend [11th-12th Oct] and early this week another Burundi battalion of 850 troops for AMISOM finally arrived in Mogadishu . They flew in from Bujumbura to join the other Burundi battalion which has been deployed in southern Mogadishu . This brings the number of Burundi troops to 1,700, and raises the AMISOM force to just over 3,400. This increase in the numbers of AMISOM forces could have led to a real improvement in the security situation but political difficulties have meant these opportunities have not been properly taken. Some two weeks ago Al-Shabaab fighters were driven out of the Bakara market by the local population, though latest information suggests some might now be returning. Retreating from there to Medina district, Al-Shabaab units were also ordered out by a population tired of Al-Shabaab excesses and maltreatment of the civilian population. Similarly, last month, an attempt by Yusuf ‘Indhe Adde’, a leading member of the extremist elements, to attack a police station in Karan district of Mogadishu was driven off with heavy casualties, by local militia forces and the local population. When Al-Shabaab attempted to close Mogadishu airport last month, there was strong popular opposition. Within a week or two, when it was obvious that Al-Shabaab was unable to make good its threat and that almost all Mogadishu elders and businessmen were against it, an Al-Shabaab spokesman unconvincingly announced they were thinking again about the idea for humanitarian reasons. It is on the basis of these activities that political progress might have been expected. Unfortunately the TFG has continued to remain paralyzed. It is this which explains why the Nairobi meeting is so critical.

On Thursday, Prime Minister Meles, answering questions in Parliament in Addis Ababa, said Ethiopian forces remained in Somalia at the behest of the Somali people, of the African Union, if not always publicly, and of the international community. Ethiopia had responded because its national interests would benefit. In the face of a clear and present danger, Ethiopia had acted swiftly to dislodge those riding on the horse of al-Shabaab. It would do so again if al-Shabaab threatened to take power. Prime Minister Meles told parliamentarians that the Government had been evaluating developments in Somalia . It would withdraw its forces if it did not leave a security vacuum, but this must be contingent upon the behavior of the TFG. What was in the interest of Ethiopia and the Somali people was a viable Somali state, capable of maintaining peace and security. Indeed, the Prime Minister added, support of the international community and a sense of responsibility by the Somali political leadership were essential to sort out Somali political differences and effect reconciliation among the various stakeholders. Should Somali political leaders muster the will and preparedness to run a functioning state with robust support from the international community, he said, Ethiopia could continue to help the process for some time. A definitive decision would be taken in coming months.