Tuesday 15 July 2008

Ceasefire comes into effect in Somalia but no progress in ARS talks

Somalia’s Prime Minister, Nur Hassan Hussein ‘Adde’, was in Addis Ababa last weekend, holding talks with Foreign Minister Seyoum. During two meetings, they discussed progress in the peace process, and what needed to done to strengthen security in Somalia. The Prime Minister briefed Minister Seyoum on the progress made towards the establishment of regional administrations in Kismayo and Lower Juba region, and in Mogadishu and Benadir region. Following the successful establishment of an elected administration in Gedo region earlier this year, and in Bay and Bakool last year, the TFG is in the process of establishing similar administrative structures in Lower Juba and Benadir. The Prime Minister was accompanied by Somalia’s Minister of Defense and the Commissioner of Police who were in Ethiopia to attend the completion of training for over 2,000 Somali army and police at the Blatten training camp near Awassa. Before leaving Addis Ababa, Prime Minister Nur ‘Adde’ told journalists that all Somalis should seize the opportunity created at Djibouti: “the agreement signed in Djibouti is the key and opens the door to peace so anyone can join, any organization opposing the government of today”. He also reiterated that UN forces were needed: “the UN and the international community must provide financial support and deploy peacekeepers without delay so that Ethiopian forces would withdraw in accordance with the agreement.”

According to the agreement signed in Djibouti on 9 June between the TFG and the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS) a ceasefire should have come into effect on Wednesday, July 9. Despite claims to the contrary, it did, and it appears the cease fire is largely holding despite the upsurge of violence in the immediately preceding weeks. This included a series of assassinations and attacks by Al-Shabaab, targeting UN and other aid agency personnel, among them even drivers of aid vehicles. The UN’s OCHA in its latest situation report noted that humanitarian access was being limited by “the deliberate targeting” of aid workers including the kidnapping of four workers from the Merka–based INGO, Water for Life. Among those killed was the head of UNDP operations in Somalia, Osman Ali Ahmed, shot as he left a mosque after evening prayers last Sunday. Unusually, Al-Shabaab denied responsibility, though UNDP recently donated 30 vehicles to TFG ministries as part of a capacity building program.
Other elements of the Djibouti agreement have yet to make much progress. Under the agreement, two committees were to be set up within two weeks. A Joint Security Committee was to be established to follow up the implementation of security arrangements. A High Level Committee, chaired by the UN, was to follow up on political cooperation between the two sides and concerns over justice and reconciliation. No names have yet been put forward by either side. The delay, it appears, is related to the ongoing efforts to reconcile the ARS group that signed the Djibouti peace agreement with the splinter group led by Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys and based in Asmara. Both sides sent delegates to Sana’a to iron out their differences. Yemen is providing the venue of the meeting but it is the UN Political Office for Somalia (UNPOS) which is organizing the effort.

Sources close to the negotiations say that the failure to reach any agreement at the outset in Sana’a prompted the establishment of a committee of elders which included the businessman and former major ICU financier, Sheikh Abu Bakar Omar Adani, Sheikh Abdulkadir Sheikh Omar, and Sheikh Ibrahim Suley, spokesperson for the ICU wing of the ARS and three others. According to sources, the majority of the committee supports the peace process. They are pushing the splinter group from Asmara to completely stop any military activity and accept the opportunity for peace. The Asmara group criticized those who signed the peace agreement for illegal actions, and said these actions had to be nullified. In addition, they demanded that all ARS members should go to Asmara to sort out their differences. The rejection of these demands triggered the establishment of the elders committee.

The Sana’a talks are an effort to reconcile two groups, one of which has opted for a peaceful resolution of the Somali crisis, the other, a splinter group based in Eritrea, who wants to impose itself on the people of Somalia through terror. As might be expected, there are concerns that concessions might be offered to accommodate the more violent party. This in turn could open a door encouraging actors like Eritrea to continue to play a role negating efforts to achieve peace and stability in Somalia.











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Lessons in Peace from Northern Ireland"






The lessons learnt in Northern Ireland are considerabl"Building Trust and Share for the Middle East, for Kashmir, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Darfur, Western Sahara and even for Cyprus.(Peter Hain, MP)
Chair: The Baroness Blood of Blackwatertown, MBE
The Rt Hon Peter Hain, MP, former Secretary of State for Northern Ireland
Pat Doherty, MP, MLA, Vice President of Sinn Fein
The Rt Hon Lord Trimble of Lisnagarvey, (David Trimble), Nobel Peace Laureate and former MP & First Minister of Northern Ireland
Key players in the peace process spoke of the challenges they faced and overcame in Northern Ireland's extraordinary transformation from horror of the worst kind to hope. Without pretending that all the problems in Northern Ireland have been resolved, the speakers offered their insights into the lessons that can be learned for other conflicts around the world.
Click here for key reccomendations from the event.